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July Top of the Props

Friday, August 07, 2009

Following its defeat at the hands of Spain in June's Top of the Props chart, the USA was back on form and nabbed the top spot in last month's chart, which provides a monthly pop chart snapshot of the most popular countries on the site...

USA
Propertywire looks at what is happening to house prices in the USA and predicts whether the price increase could just be put down to typical seasonal price swings...

Residential property prices are soaring beyond expectations in many markets in the US with analysts and market observers starting to talk about a recovery and growing confidence in the real estate sector.

Many are eagerly talking about a slowing of declines in home sales and median sales prices across the US. Phrases being used include 'housing bottom' and 'recovery in sight,' with several financial institutions going so far as to tell shareholders the recession itself is at an end.

But, others are more cautious. For example, even although Radar Logic's RPX Monthly Housing Market Report showed three months of stability in the composite home prices, its chief executive officer Michael Feder has been reluctant to use the word 'recovery'.

In a special report published last week the real estate data and analytics provider acknowledged the encouraging signs of stability in house prices, but refused to be explicit on whether or not the bottom of the market has been reached.

Radar Logic pointed to home prices soaring in many markets beyond the expected levels, given historical seasonal patterns. This trend suggests price increases seen recently are due to something beyond simple seasonal swings.

Along with strong gains in prices studied by Radar Logic, housing starts increased continually since the beginning of the year. Existing home sales rose steadily through the year and new home sales are also on the rise since March, indicating the gain in home sales is not due only to high foreclosure resales as buyers work through foreclosure inventory.

'While houses may sell at a discount from their peak values for years to come, the return to normal seasonal patterns suggests that sustainable appreciation could return to the market soon. Attitudes have changed dramatically since last winter and the fear of many investors has turned to optimism,' the report says.

But the question remains whether the trend will continue through the approaching winter and the expected seasonal downturn, Radar Logic analysts said. Buyers tend to retreat for winter and remain on the sidelines until February, when volume usually picks up again.

So prudent observers like Feder are waiting until winter passes to make judgments on the market, as any current recovery trends should become more apparent between now and next buying season.

'A positive sign to look for is a winter home-price decline that is less severe than would be expected given past seasonal price patterns. This would indicate that consumers' confidence in the housing market is strengthening and that a strong upcoming buying season could be on the way,' the report concluded. (Picture above by David Prior).

Let's look at Portugal, which took fourth place in July's chart.

Whilst Portugal never experienced the sky-high growth in property prices that Spain did, it meant that once the credit crunch hit, the market had less far to fall.

Slow, steady growth - homes in Portugal has been rising by around three to four per cent each year since 2003 -  is always going to be far more sustainable than the super-fast boom that Spain has enjoyed over the last few years, prior to the recession.

Property in Portugal often enjoys a higher standard of build quality than in other, more saturated markets such as Spain.

If you are on the hunt for a bargain, there are several key hotspots around the country in which you could consider concentrating your search.

Perennial Portugal property favourite the Algarve still has plenty to offer second home-hunters on a budget, while the country's famous Silver Coast, as well as Albufeira and Vilamoura are also recommended.

John Reilly, Managing Director at BuyAbroad.com, said, "There are some bargains in the Algarve and the Silver Coast is still very cheap.

"Albufeira is still very popular and Vilamoura is top of the list for a lot of people due to affordable prices," he added.

Other movers and shakers

June's winner Spain had to settle for second place in last month's chart, followed by France and Portugal in third and fourth places respectively. Turkey sneaked into fifth place, followed by Italy and Cyprus at six and seven. Rounding off July's Top of the Props chart was Bulgaria in eighth place, followed by the UAE. Egypt took the final place in the lineup, coming in tenth.

July's Top of the Props chart

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Overall Enquiry Volume for July 2009
Rank	Country	Share	Change	Comment
1	USA	14.02	Up 1	1 month in top spot
2	Spain	11.46	Down 1
3	France	9.4	Non-mover
4	Portugal	6.39	Non-mover
5	Turkey	5.69	Up 2
6	Italy	5.12	Down 1
7	Cyprus	2.93	Up 3
8	Bulgaria	2.63	Up 5	New to top 10!
9	UAE	2.51	Down 3
10	Egypt	2.09	Down 1
11	Thailand	1.62	Up 11
12	Greece	1.54	Down 1
13	Malaysia	1.52	Up 7
14	Morocco	1.49	Up 1
15	Germany	1.29	Up 1
16	Brazil	1.27	Down 8
17	Australia	1.27	Down 3
18	Grenada	0.72	Up 15
19	Philippines	0.67	Up 8
20	Canada	0.67	Up 3
21	Croatia	0.65	Down 3
22	Sweden	0.55	Down 3
23	India	0.5	Up 6
24	Hungary	0.5	Up 16
25	Tunisia	0.47	Non-mover
26	Dominican Republic	0.4	Down 2
27	Panama	0.35	Down 10	Biggest faller
28	New Zealand	0.35	Up 10
29	Indonesia	0.32	Up 15
30	Romania	0.32	Down 4
31	South Africa	0.27	Up 17	Highest climber
32	Austria	0.27		Highest New Entry
33	Costa Rica	0.27	Down 3
34	Bahamas	0.25	Non-mover
35	St Lucia	0.22	Up 14
36	Barbados	0.2	Down 5
37	Albania	0.15	Down 5
38	Ireland	0.15		New Entry
39	Poland	0.12	Down 2
40	Montenegro	0.12	Up 5

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